5.26.2014

Giro d'Italia: Rest Day Predictions

Cyclingnews posted a very dettailed prediction:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/six-contenders-with-a-week-to-win-the-giro-ditalia?ns_campaign=features&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=cyclingnews&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=features
In terms of final GC it's like that:

1 Uran
2 Quintana
3 Majka
4 Evans
5 Aru
6 Pozzovivo
7 -10 Wilco Kelderman, Pierre Rolland, Robert Kiserlovski, Ryder Hesjedal.

Facts stay like that:


Main contenders in the second rest day  (Large)
1 Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Omega Pharma - Quick-Step Cycling Team 63:26:39
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:01:03
3 Rafal Majka (Pol) Tinkoff-Saxo 0:01:50
4 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:02:24
5 Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team 0:02:40
6 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:42
7 Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team 0:03:04
8 Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar 0:04:47
9 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Trek Factory Racing 0:05:44
10 Wout Poels (Ned) Omega Pharma - Quick-Step Cycling Team 0:06:32
11 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin Sharp 0:06:44
12 Ivan Basso (Ita) Cannondale 0:07:42
  .....................................
15 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Androni Giocattoli 0:11:02
16 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ.fr 0:13:08
17 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Lotto Belisol 0:13:37
18 Matteo Rabottini (Ita) Neri Sottoli - Yellow Fluo 0:14:25
19 Fabio Andres Duarte Arevalo (Col) Colombia 0:14:46
20 Jose Herrada (Esp) Movistar 0:14:59
21 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Merida 0:19:45
 ......................................
27 Georg Preidler (Aut) Team Giant-Shimano 0:28:14
 .......................................
31 Sebastian Henao Gomez (Col) Team Sky 0:43:14
32 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Team Katusha 0:47:12

....................
40 Ivan Santaromita (Ita) Orica Greenedge 0:51:58
...............
43 Dario Cataldo (Ita) Team Sky 0:55:24
...to be confronted with...

Main contenders in the first rest day
5Ivan Santaromita (Ita) Orica Greenedge +14''
8Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Omega Pharma - Quick-Step Cycling Team0:00:19
14Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +21''
19Rafal Majka (Pol) Tinkoff-Saxo0:00:26
20Ben Swift (GBr) Team Sky0:00:29
21Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Team Sky0:00:35
27Nicolas Roche (Irl) Tinkoff-Saxo + 37''
32Michele Scarponi (Ita) Astana Pro Team0:00:41
38Dario Cataldo (Ita) Team Sky +49''
49Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Trek Factory Racing0:01:03
55Ivan Basso (Ita) Cannondale + 1'.07''
59Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team0:01:09
69Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team +1'.12''
73Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale
76Julian David Arredondo Moreno (Col) Trek Factory Racing0:01:14
106Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Merida0:01:34
116Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Team Katusha0:01:47
156Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin Sharp +3'.40''

My opinion:
Crashes and illness decimated some teams (ORICA-GE), affected others' performace (Team Sky) and put a end to some conternders' race (Dan Martin, Purito Rodriguez). Some expectations have been confirmed, others no. Rigoberto Uran and Rafal Majka were my favourite for the Pink and the White Jersey, they are wearing them and I think they are going to keep them. I still don't think that Quintana can win this Giro and am not sure about him getting to the podium
Cadel Evans is a surprise for me this year: he's really strong and that goes together with a huge experience. Don't underrate him! It's true that he isn't the main favourite for the final victory, especially because his team is not as strong as OPQS so he's often isolated earlier than others. A podium place is possible for him.
Domenico Pozzovivo is very strong and has got a strong team. He had an 'off day', that doesn't mean his Giro is over: keep out! lots of mountains ahead. I'm way more optimist that Cyclingnews about him: top five. Fabio Aru is strong but young and Astana doesn't seem so strong compared to other teams, so he can't count on a big support. Top ten would be an excellent result for him.
Robert Kiserlovski is constantly in front, media talk few of him but he's doing avery good Giro and TFR is strong. In my opinion he's going to improve his GC, especially if Arredondo stop messing up and focus on helping. Wilco Kelderman is consistent but can't compete with Majka so the White Jersey isn't a realistic goal in this Giro. Can he win a stage? Hardly. A top ten is probably few for him but in these conditions it's the most likely result. 
Cyclingnews says Pierre Rolland will win for sure a stage. I don't agree. He's very aggressive but the next stages are all GC battle field. He can win but not for sure. Yesterday we have seen that Uran had given him free way but must respond when Aru attacked. 
Poels, Hesjedal and Basso will probably lost some terrain in the next week: the first one because he's going to help Uran in the finals, the others becausein my opinion they are already too high in GC. Basso is suffering but resists, at the opposite Hesjedal seems improving day by day. But I don't buy it: I expect him to crack very soon. Maybe I'm wrong.
Finally: the strage case of Diego Ulissi. He won three stages, included the itt. I'm very surprised by that last results. Then? nothing. He's 26th at 26:19 while Damiano Cunego is 21 at 19'.  
Confronting the situation in Bari and now you can see that the first 3 places didn't change (amongh the favourites). I think they are NOT going to change that much: only Majka is unlikely to stay in 3rd till Trieste (also) because Tinkoff can't give him all the support he would need. So my prediction is:

1 Uran
2 Evans
3 Pozzovivo
4 Quintana
5 Majka
6 Kiserlovski
7 -10 Fabio Aru Wilco Kelderman, Pierre Rolland, Robert , Ryder Hesjedal.

What do you think?





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